When I first heard that Chip Kelly traded LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for a linebacker I thought he was an idiot. Then I started to really get excited about McCoy’s fantasy value on a Rex Ryan Bills team. Fast forward about a week, and Chip goes and makes another couple of bonehead moves by signing both DeMarco Murray AND Ryan Mathews. Okay, so from a pure football point of view they weren’t necessarily bonehead moves (it can never hurt to have spoil of riches in your backfield), but as a fantasy fanatic I’m devastated that I can no longer think about drafting two of the running backs who I happen to have a certain affinity for. Let’s not forget that the Eagles still have Darren Sproles as well, adding more confusion to the jumbled mess of running backs in Philadelphia.

Heading into the 2015 fantasy season I would recommend avoiding all three backs entirely, but if I absolutely had to pick one of them to draft I would go with Sproles. Sproles is the guy who already has a year under his belt in Chip Kelly’s system, and he’s used to his role as a complimentary back. He has put up consistent production his entire career as a backup, even having to deal with teammates like LaDainian Tomlinson, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram, and McCoy. Darren Sproles is the one player that I can draft and at least feel confident that I know what I’m going to get. You should be able to wait until at least the 8th/9th round, or later, to draft a player who is still a decent FLEX consideration most weeks.

Sproles has only missed five games over the last five seasons (with San Diego, New Orleans and Philadelphia). He has 30 total TDs in that span, and averages 59 carries for 333 yards as well as 66 catches for 578 yards. He’s scored 220 fantasy points in his last two seasons (split between the Saints and Eagles), averaging 275 rushing yards and 495 receiving yards, with 12 total TDs. I am projecting Sproles will get 50 carries for 250 yards, 30 catches for 275 yards, 4 total TDs, and 75 fantasy points in 2015, which is a little more than a 30% drop from his average of 110 points over the past two seasons.

Unlike Sproles, Mathews and Murray are both new to this Eagles team and to Chip Kelly’s offense. Both backs have had a history of injuries (each RB has only played a complete 16-game season once in his career), and when they do play they are used to being “the guy”. The coach has been very open about his plan to split the workload as much as possible and use all of his backs, and for that reason I believe we could see a lot of “feast or famine” output in this timeshare. Think of it like this: Sproles may still be the 3rd RB on the team, but you can expect him to consistently put up 6 points per week, whereas Murray and Mathews will take turns having impact games depending on who’s hot at the time. This, of course, is also assuming that there are no injury setbacks for either player (DeMarco Murray in particular).

Tristan H. Cockroft wrote an amazing article in 2010 about the “370 curse” (basically dooming any RBs who have carried the ball 370 times or more in one season), and DeMarco Murray is definitely the next big name back who can fall victim to this. Sure, you may not be one to place too much value on silly things like curses, but there is more than enough evidence in the stats to back up this idea, and Cockroft really does a tremendous job outlining all of the key contributors to what will most likely be a huge fantasy flop for Murray this season. My projections for DeMarco: 205 carries and 35 catches for 1,230 total yards, with 7 TDs and 160 fantasy points. Those numbers would again be around a 30% drop from his 2013-2014 average of 236 fantasy points, and are much more generous than what Cockroft’s research would suggest.

I guess 30% is the magic number because I also anticipate Ryan Mathews’ output to drop off by right around that figure. His draft stock is the most unpredictable in my opinion for a number of reasons. First, he’s the most fragile back on this list and only played 6 games in 2014. Second, I feel like a lot of fantasy owners might be inclined to reach too much for Mathews by overestimating the upside provided by the Eagles offensive scheme. Finally (and this is admittedly all speculation on my part), this is the first time in four years that he has had to compete for a starting job, and let’s face it the San Diego media/ fan base isn’t exactly Philly. I have to wonder a little bit about how he will hold up mentally if he struggles on the field, and it could ultimately derail his fantasy season as well. I see him getting 120 carries and 20 catches for 675 total yards, with 3 TDs and 85 fantasy points. Over the last two years, he’s averaged 121 points and has produced a total of 1,843 yards and 10 TDs on 394 touches (which is right on pace with the 1,845 yards that Murray had on 393 carries in 2014).

Sincerely, The Jeggernaut-

I love to get my Skittles ready on Sundays just as much as the next guy. Thing is, I just might not need to buy as many bags of Skittles this year. The blockbuster trade between Seattle and New Orleans earlier this month definitely came as a shock, but there is more than just salary caps and merchandise sales that will be affected. The departure of Pro-Bowl Center Max Unger and the arrival of All-Pro TE Jimmy Graham is a double-edged sword stabbing away at the fantasy value of Marshawn Lynch in 2015. The impact of Jimmy Graham (outside of being top-3 in Red Zone TDs over the last three seasons) is mostly speculation and the projected impact he will have on the Seahawks offense. However, as far as the relationship between Max Unger and Lynch’s fantasy points is concerned, there is plenty of hard evidence to prove that Lynch will struggle to keep his “elite” status this year.

Unger missed ten games in 2014 with injuries (weeks 6-9, as well as weeks 12-17), and those ten games are ones that Marshawn Lynch owners would love to forget. Here’s a breakdown of of Lynch’s production with and without Max Unger:

• WK 6 – 6 points, 0 TDs
• WK 7 – 6 points, 0 TDs
• WK 8 – 6 points, 0 TDs
• WK 9 – 25 points, 2 TDs
• WK 12 – 7 points, 0 TDs
• WK 13 – 10 points, 0 TDs
• WK 14 – 14 points, 1 TD (receiving)
• WK 15 – 15 points, 1 TD
• WK 16 – 23 points, 2 TDs
• WK 17 – 13 points, 1 TD

125 fantasy points, 7 TDs without Unger in the lineup. 8 out of 10 weeks resulted in 15 points or less, with 4 weeks in single digits. He also scored ZERO rushing TDs in 6 out of 10.

• WK 1 – 24 points, 2 TDs
• WK 2 – 11 points, 1 TD (receiving)
• WK 3 – 24 points, 2 TDs
• WK 5 – 17 points, 1 TD (receiving)
• WK 10 – 40 points, 4TDs
• WK 11 – 12 points, 0 TDs

128 fantasy points, 10 TDs with Unger in the lineup. 4 out of 6 weeks resulted in more than 15 points, including 2 weeks of 24 points and a whopping 40 in week 10. He only failed to find the end zone ONCE in those 6 games.

Between 2011-2014 Lynch averaged 295 carries for 1,340 yards & 12 TDs, and 31 catches for 272 yards & 2 TDs, which totals roughly 245 fantasy points. As I mentioned, I believe that his total touches/yardage will come down about 10-15% this year, with his TD totals falling off by more than 25%. I have Marshawn going for 1,175 yards on 270 carries and adding another 215 yards on 25 catches with 10 total TDs and 2 fumbles (195 points) in 2015.

+ most of these stats can be found on ESPN.com/fantasyfootball and Rotoworld.com +          Jegs~

“Hey, dude! Bruins just won in OT!”          “Oh nice. Who scored, Kessel?”          “No.”

“Was it Seguin?”          “No.”          “Iginla? It must have been Iginla.”          “No. Chris Kelly.”

Now I know that’s not a conversation I’ve ever had with any of my friends, and I’m pretty sure that holds true for every Bruins fan from Boston to San Diego (Hi Craig). I admit that maybe I’m making those 2011 trades sound worse than they are by saying Boston gave up 3 players and 3 draft picks for Chris Kelly, but the fact of the matter is that what the 2015 Bruins are left with in the aftermath of those 2 months is, well, simply Chris Kelly. Allow me to break down the 3 tragic trades for you.

The Kelly trade actually wasn’t that bad, the Bs gave up a second round pick. Fine. Despite my disgust with Chris Kelly, I’d still probably make that trade today. However, Boston’s trades with Atlanta (now the Winnipeg Jets) and Toronto are simply some of the worst moves I’ve seen. Giving up Blake Wheeler and Mark Stuart still makes me cringe, and what did the Bruins get in return? Rich Peverly and Boris Valabik…yeah, Boris Valabik. You’ve probably never heard of him, and I apologize for the name drop. Remove it from your memory; forget I ever brought him up. The trade with Toronto was even more egregious. How about unloading a young prospect (Joe Colborne), a first round pick and a conditional second round pick for a 4 month rental of Tomas Kaberle?!

Blake Wheeler (6’5″ 205 pounds) has shaped up into a great, scoring top-6 forward. He dressed with the US National team in the Sochi Olympics, and has basically become a perennial 20-goal scorer (he’s only scored 20+ in two seasons, but has tallied 18, 18, and 17, as well as 19 in a lockout-shortened 2012-2013 campaign). In 2013-2014 he scored 28 goals and 41 assists in 82 games, and so far this season he has 17 goals and 29 assists in 62 games. He’s currently signed through the 2018-2019 season for $5.6 million and has only missed 6 games in 7 NHL seasons.

Mark Stuart is one guy I would love to have on the blue line. He’s tough, physical and plays responsible defensive hockey. While he isn’t going to contribute much on the score sheet, he does all the little things and plays smart. At 6’2″ 213 pounds he isn’t afraid to hit, or to drop gloves. He’s also grown into a leadership role quite nicely as one of the Jets alternate captains and a definitive top-4 defensive player. In the last 2 seasons he’s played in 122 games with a combined +16 rating and 156 penalty minutes. As for bargain contracts, how does $2.75 million a year through 2017-2018 sound?

Granted, Joe Colborne wasn’t much of anything at the time the Bruins gave him up. That being said, the former first round pick has started to blossom since he moved to Calgary last year. A Center with good size (6’5″ 219 pounds), Colborne has managed to break through and get a large chunk of playing time with the Flames. In 2013-2014 he played in 80 out of 82 games and registered 10 goals and 18 assists. He’s continued along that trend this year, already collecting 6 goals and 18 assists in just 44 games. Again, he comes at a decent pay grade, making $1.275 million through the end of next year. He’s still just 25 years old.

What have the Bruins wonderful additions given the team since they were acquired in 2011? Chris Kelly has played in 311 games, totaling 49 goals and 67 assists up to this point, and he’s costing the team $3 million a year for one more season after this. Kaberle put on the black and gold sweater for just 49 games, scoring 1 goal and 19 assists. Even in those 49 games his play was questionable (Our beloved Mike Milbury so lovingly dubbed him a “creampuff” during the playoffs). He no longer plays in the NHL. Peverly managed to score 30 goals and 56 assists in 180 games before the Bruins parted ways with him in the summer of 2013. He collapsed on the bench during a game against Columbus last March, almost a year ago to date. His NHL future is currently unknown (though it can be assumed that he will most likely have to hang ’em up for good) and he is serving as an Assistant Coach for the AHL-affiliate Texas Stars…

The Jeggernaut-

Alright folks, so I’m a little late on posting this. Sorry about the delay, but we had some technical difficulties in the last 12 hours that thankfully I was able to clear up.

Since I shot this video a few things have changed on the trade deadline landscape. The Bruins were able to pick up Brett Connolly from Tampa Bay for a couple of second round draft picks. While I’m happy that we didn’t have to give up any pieces of the current roster, I don’t see this being a trade that will impact the outcome of this season. Connolly is more of a building block player who the team can hopefully shape into a top-6 forward down the road. He’s only 22 years old and at 6’2″ 181 pounds he has a little growing to do to truly be that “elite” RW that we want him to be. I think he’s more of a Reilly Smith type guy, but we’ll see how that shapes up.

Secondly, one of my targets (Erik Cole) was picked up by the Red Wings, which stings a little bit since I don’t want to root for Detroit. I knew it would have been a reach to even get a guy like Cole, and maybe its good that we weren’t able to pick him up since the Red Wings gave up two prospects and a second round pick for him.

Overall, this is pretty much where I expected the Bruins to be at this point, having not really stirred up too much. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if they still try to make a move to pick up a solid defensive presence before the day is done.

Jegs-