AH, you see what I did with that title there? Clever, right? You can thank me later. Look, I’ll be up front about it, I’ve never been a big Darren McFadden guy. I was always in the camp of, “He’s going to get hurt 3 weeks into the season, I’m not going to waste a pick on him.” He was a stud back in 2010 when he scored 10 total TDs and 220 fantasy points, but outside of that one great season he’s mostly been a WW flyer/ one-week FLEX pickup at best. I’m not going to sit here and tell you he will definitely stay healthy and play a full 16 games, or even start all of the games he plays in for that matter. Rather, I will simply lay out all of the numbers proving why he CAN be a valuable fantasy commodity, IF he stays healthy.

In 2014 we saw DeMarco Murray lead the NFL in rushing behind the best Offensive Line in the league (Dallas was ranked #1 overall, and 2nd in run-blocking). En route to acquiring the rushing title, he averaged 4.7 yards/carry (which is almost exactly his career average of 4.8 yards/carry) on an astronomical 392 rushing attempts. Just using the eye test, it is clear that Darren McFadden doesn’t have the same kind of dynamic, explosive skills that Murray has. However, even if we can assume that his workload will be closer to the RBs who play inside of the Earth’s atmosphere, McFadden’s prospective 2015 output should still be a pretty nice little chunk of the fantasy universe.

My 2015 projections for Run DMC are really quite simple. Taking into account his career averages, behind a very sub-par Oakland Raiders Offensive Line (Oakland’s O-line was ranked #16 in 2014, but just 24th in run blocking which was still an improvement from its #29 overall rank in 2013.), it is not unrealistic to expect the numbers I discussed in my overview. He has 30 total TDs in his career (83 games) and averages 12.5 carries per game for 4.1 yards/carry, as well as 2.5 catches per game for 8.4 yards/catch. Those averages over a 16 game season: 12.5 X 16 = 200 carries, 2.5 X 16 = 40 catches, 200 X 4.1 = 820 yards rushing, 40 X 8.4 = 336 yards receiving, and 0.36 TDs per game X 16 = 5.78 TDs in 2015.

The 150 fantasy points that would correlate to those numbers should definitely be good enough to place McFadden inside the top-25 running back ranks. However, if I’m wrong about Joseph Randle or Lance Dunbar, or if Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon don’t end up playing for the Cowboys, he has the potential for a 1,000 yard + season and possibly even a higher TD total if defenses underestimate him and load up on coverage of Dez Bryant in the red zone. Again, IF he stays healthy and emerges as the true lead back in Dallas, the upside on his output could certainly be approaching top-15 RB status. Either way, I think it’s a safe bet that he can be a reliable RB2 on your team for a good chunk of the season, and drafting him in the middle rounds (6-10) should be a reasonable investment in most standard league formats.

Peace, Love, and Football.     The Jeggernaut-