A friend of mine (we’ll call him Frank) recently came to me with a dilemma. He’s somewhere in the middle of a 12-team draft and hits the same sort of wall in every mock draft that he does. In the third round he is looking at a group of players that are borderline low-end RB1s/ high-end RB2s, and now it simply comes down to him making the “right” choice out of a bunch of similar prospects. I feel like this is something that a lot of fantasy players can relate to, and is probably something that many of you have already encountered this summer. One concept that has opened my eyes a little bit is the idea of a player’s “range of possible outcomes”. While I cannot take credit for this theory, I’ve heard both Matthew Berry and Christopher Harris allude to it in a lot of the research I’ve done. It’s really a pretty simple, neat way to make a determination on which player is right for you, so let’s get to it.

Frank has been looking at drafting Justin Forsett, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, or Jonathan Stewart. All of these RBs are being ranked somewhere between the #10 and #20 spot for the position (depending on which site you get your rankings from and who’s draft board you’re looking at), and that’s exactly the type of player you need to fill your roster in the early rounds. All of them have some really nice upside, yet they all give you reason for concern as well.

Forsett finished with the highest fantasy point total last season, but it is also the first time in his 7-year career that he has even come close to that workload (his 235 carries in 2014 were twice as many as he had in the previous 3 years combined). He will be turning 30 in two months, is only 5’8″ and also has the bigger Lorenzo Taliaferro, and rookie Javorius Allen to contend with in the Ravens backfield. If he gets hurt at all or struggles to produce we could see the other 2 backs cut in to his carries and leave us with the 2011 version Justin Forsett that racked up a whopping 33 fantasy points. HOWEVER, if he stays healthy there is no reason to think the Ravens won’t use him the same way in 2015. The offensive line is still in tact and Baltimore is typically a run-first team. If your league has any additional PPR value placed on players, it gives Forsett a little boost over the others with his ability to catch 40-50+ balls out of the backfield.

Hyde is one of those players who isn’t technically a “rookie” on paper, but for all intents and purposes mind as well be (you could even place Latavius Murray in this category, another player who is hovering right around #20 in the RB ranks). We don’t have a huge sample size to look at in the case of Carlos Hyde, but with veteran Frank Gore leaving for Indianapolis, it leaves the door wide open. He’s a big, heavy runner at 235lbs. and did average 4.0 yards per carry when given an opportunity last year. His only real “competition” in the backfield is the aging Reggie Bush and the fading Kendall Hunter, and the 49ers will try to keep the ball out of Colin Kaepernick’s hands as much as possible so the upside looks very promising for Hyde. He has the potential to produce a season similar to that of Jeremy Hill last year, or even as impressive as the one Alfred Morris gave us in 2012. The glaring concern, however, is that he has to face Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis a total of 6 times, and all 3 defenses are extremely stingy against the run. Unless Bush has a sudden resurgence and the San Fran backfield turns into a tandem like we saw from the Lions in 2013, I still like Hyde’s chances and I would take a shot at him in the first 3 rounds.

JSTEW is probably the guy in this group I trust the most, IF he remains healthy. Again, we’re talking about a 230lb back who’s powerful and yet agile enough to grab 30-40+ catches out of the backfield. Assuming good health (taking 2012 and 2013 out of the equation, he has only missed 5 games over 5 seasons), Stewart has been very consistent in Carolina and on the low end is a sure bet for 750 yards and at least 4TDs. Let’s not forget that he was also in a timeshare with DeAngelo Williams all of those years, and this is the first season in a long time that he appears to be the clear-cut workhorse back for the Panthers. Sure, there’s always the hype about the human-wrecking-ball that is Mike Tolbert poaching some TDs, and even his QB Cam Newton is a goal-line threat, but I like his upside a lot this season. Rookie Cameron Artis-Payne hasn’t proven anything yet and is still buried on the depth chart, and Carolina doesn’t exactly face a bunch of devastating defenses in the perennially up-for-grabs NFC South. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see 1,000+ yards and a shot at double-digit TDs from JSTEW in 2015, but even if he falls short of that I can certainly live with his aforementioned floor.

Miller is the best combination of both youth and experience out of this bunch. He’s only 24 and this will be his third season as the starter in Miami, where we’ve seen consistent production out of him. While there are several other talented RBs behind him (Damien Williams, LaMichael James, Jay Ajayi), I see a very small range of outcomes due to the reliability of his workload. He may only carry the ball 12-15 times a game, but you can bank on him getting AT LEAST that much work each week and he’s a lock for 30+ catches as well. Very similar to Stewart he should be a safe bet for 750+ yards and a few scores, but his upside could be well over 1,000 yards and 6+ TDs. The growth of Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins’ aerial attack makes for a legitimate multi-dimensional offense that, if effective, can keep tough defenses (like the Bills and Jets) at bay. Lamar Miller may not be a sexy pick, but he’s most likely the safest RB in this group.

In summation, there are reasons to take any of these RBs as long as you’re willing to live with the risks involved and try to assemble your roster to support your decision. Hyde, Forsett, and even Murray are more of the “feast or famine” backs that could have a huge week and win a matchup or two for you, but who could also spend several weeks on end giving you 5 or 6 fantasy points. Stewart, Miller, and Morris are safer bets, whose workload won’t vary too dramatically and you can feel comfortable plugging them in as an RB2 or FLEX option each week for consistent 8-12 point production. I wasn’t asked to rank them, but if that helps at all here it goes:

1) Alfred Morris   2) Carlos Hyde   3) Lamar Miller   4) Jonathan Stewart   5) Justin Forsett   6) Latavius Murray

One of my fantasy leagues recently had its draft selection, and I have the second overall pick. I’ve been doing several mock drafts and evaluating what kind of talent will be there for me as the draft develops. Now of course, all leagues are a little different, but I am in a standard 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB and a FLEX position; this season we’ve implemented .5 PPR scoring to our rules. If you are also one of the top 3 picks in your league, here are some useful observations and tips on how to build your strategy –

With one of the first 3 picks, it’s safe to say that you are going to get a stud RB1. I have Le’Veon Bell and Adrian Peterson ranked #1/2, but after that I think it’s totally reasonable to take any of the next 4 RBs available (Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch,  or Matt Forte). Having secured one of the elite RBs in the league, I’ve been taking a WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I personally would not recommend trying to reach for a QB or TE there, and let’s face it Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Rob Gronkowski shouldn’t be available at #22 so there won’t really be a reason to grab those positions anyway. If your personal draft strategy differs from that than I guess I can’t force you into it, but take some time to look into other aspects like scarcity, value-based drafting (VBD), and VORP (value over replacement player) and you’ll see that it’s foolish to stray away from the WR position in the 2/3 round. If you do in fact have a PPR or .5 PPR league, that should be yet another reason to reinforce this strategy.

After the first round it helps to think of players in clusters since you’ll be swinging back around for the rest of the draft. What I mean by this is that you’ll have two picks in very quick succession after a long wait where you have to just watch talent come off the board (i.e. #24/25 picks, #23/26 picks, #22/27 picks). As I mentioned, you should be targeting 2 WRs between the 22-27 picks; there should be enough talent still sitting there for you to be able to accomplish this. The top-6 WRs will definitely be gone (Dez, Demaryius, Antonio Brown, Megatron, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones), but all of the players I will be highlighting fall somewhere in that #7-13 WR rank; essentially right around a top-10 WR, which is what you’re looking to acquire in a 12 team league.

I’ll start with the two players that I’ll call the “best case scenario” for you at this point in the draft, which would be A.J. Green and Alshon Jeffery (and by best case scenario, I’m simply taking previous stats and trying to project their averages for the 2015 season, which we know is anything but an exact science). There are a lot of reasons to like both of these WRs. They both fit the mold of that prototypical big WR1, just like 5 out of the top 6 WRs that I already mentioned. Green is 6’4″, 210 lbs. and Jeffery is 6’3″, 215lbs, and both players are the clear cut #1 receiver on their respective teams. Another interesting component that they share is that they are both in the final year of their rookie contracts; this can potentially translate to a huge fantasy season since each WR will be hoping to put up big numbers and get paid in 2016. However, you do need to consider that because of their dominance, and the lack of another talented WR (Kevin White aside, simply because of having zero NFL experience) they will be getting double-teamed by most defenses, which could be a cause for some concern. Either player has the potential to be the best in the league and both have shown big play ability throughout their careers, and because of that they should be every-week starters as a WR1.

I have only been able to land one of those “top 2” WRs at my 2/3 round cluster in most mocks, so it would be a tough task to expect that you could definitely grab both. Moving on to the other three “lower” end WR1s that you could potentially get in these few spots, we see some guys that are the complete opposite of Green and Jeffery. Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders and T.Y. Hilton are quick speedy WRs whose average height and weight is just 5’10” 185lbs. Again, we’ve seen flashes from all 3 of these guys that make them very attractive to fantasy owners, and they’re certainly on the cusp of top-10 WR status. Unlike Green and Jeffery, all of these WRs have another big weapon on their team that will take some of the focus off of them, which should help to create opportunities for long receptions and big scoring plays (Sanders is #2 to Demaryius Thomas in Denver, Cobb is #2 to Jordy Nelson in Green Bay and Hilton now has Andre Johnson as a teammate in Indianapolis). Similar to Alshon Jeffery and A.J. Green being in contract years, we saw the best production of Randall Cobb’s career last season, and he now has a new contract. Emmanuel Sanders broke out as a slot receiver in 2013 and signed a new deal in Denver at the start of 2014, which was a stat-producing season far and above all others he’s had as a pro. Another advantage in picking any of these 3 players is that they have the #1, #2 and #3 QBs in the league throwing them the football. I will take Rodgers, Luck and Peyton over the likes of Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler any day.

Taking a look at all 5 receivers’ stats over the past few years, you can see that there isn’t really much of a difference between A.J. Green at #7 and T.Y. Hilton at #13. Let me break down some key numbers, some of which impact PPR leagues as well:

A.J. Green – 195 catches between 2012-2013, he averages 81 yards/game over his career and 9 TDs per season.He has had 20 games with 100+ yards and in 2014 he had six or more catches 6  times. Taking all of these numbers into account he would average 12.5 fantasy points per week in 2015.

Alshon Jeffery – 174 catches over the last 2 years, averaging 79 yards/game and 8 TDs per season. He has 8 games with 100+ yards, and caught six or more passes in 7 games in 2014. He would average approximately 12.25 points per week.

Emmanuel Sanders – 168 catches since 2013, averaging 67 yards/game and 7 TDs in the last two seasons. He has 7 games with 100+ yards, all of which came in 2014 when he also had 10 games with 6+ catches. He averages 11.5 fantasy points per week.

Randall Cobb – 171 catches in 2012&2014 (excluding the 2013 season in which injuries held him to only 6 games). He averages 72 yards/game over that span, with 8 TDs per season and also has 10 games with 100+ yards. In 2014 he had six or more catches 7 times and should average 11.25 fantasy points in 2015.

T.Y. Hilton – 164 catches since 2013, averaging 71 yards/game in his career and 6 TDs per season. He has 16 games with 100+ yards and had 7 games with 6+ catches in 2014. He would average 10.5 points per week.

As you can see, the numbers are very close no matter which combination of WRs you end up with. A Green/Jeffery combo would be worth about 24-25 points per week, a Green/Sanders combo would be worth 23-24 points per week, a Sanders/Hilton combo would be worth about 21-22 points per week. You see where I’m going with this… I guess what I would emphasize is to not just take numbers into account but to also use your own logic about certain NFL teams’ offenses; who the QB is, what the other fantasy threats on that team might be, and frankly just your own intuition based on how you’ve seen the players play. Gather a group of players together at each of your swing clusters and you’ll be giving yourself multiple backup options to feel safe about drafting if someone on your board is gone.

Good Luck with your drafts, and stay tuned for a breakdown of some middle-late rounds as well. TTYL, The Jeggernaut-

I’ve always had an infatuation with crazy sports names and the NFL has always had a lot of great ones. Anything with a “z”, “q”, “v”, or an apostrophe is an automatic contender. Here’s this year’s list.

1) Jaquiski Tartt – FS San Francisco 49ers

2) Quandre Diggs – CB Detroit Lions

3) Deiontrez Mount – OLB Tennessee Titans

4) Za’Darius Smith – OLB Baltimore Ravens

5) Senquez Golson – CB Pittsburgh Steelers

6) Owamagbe Odighizuwa – DE New York Giants

7) Hau’Oli Kikaha – OLB New Orleans Saints

8) Aaron Ripkowski – FB Green Bay Packers

9) Bud Dupree – OLB Pittsburgh Steelers

10) Javorius Allen – RB Baltimore Ravens

Honorable Mentions: Hroniss Grasu – C Chicago Bears; Ifo Ekpre-Olomu – CB Cleveland Browns; Tayo Fabuluje – G Chicago Bears; Obum Gwacham – DE Seattle Seahawks; Arie Kouandjio – G Washington Redskins

Congratulations to the Bears, Ravens and Steelers, which all have 2 players on this list. However, none of them are quite as great as D’Brickashaw Ferguson!