One of my fantasy leagues recently had its draft selection, and I have the second overall pick. I’ve been doing several mock drafts and evaluating what kind of talent will be there for me as the draft develops. Now of course, all leagues are a little different, but I am in a standard 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB and a FLEX position; this season we’ve implemented .5 PPR scoring to our rules. If you are also one of the top 3 picks in your league, here are some useful observations and tips on how to build your strategy –

With one of the first 3 picks, it’s safe to say that you are going to get a stud RB1. I have Le’Veon Bell and Adrian Peterson ranked #1/2, but after that I think it’s totally reasonable to take any of the next 4 RBs available (Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch,  or Matt Forte). Having secured one of the elite RBs in the league, I’ve been taking a WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I personally would not recommend trying to reach for a QB or TE there, and let’s face it Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Rob Gronkowski shouldn’t be available at #22 so there won’t really be a reason to grab those positions anyway. If your personal draft strategy differs from that than I guess I can’t force you into it, but take some time to look into other aspects like scarcity, value-based drafting (VBD), and VORP (value over replacement player) and you’ll see that it’s foolish to stray away from the WR position in the 2/3 round. If you do in fact have a PPR or .5 PPR league, that should be yet another reason to reinforce this strategy.

After the first round it helps to think of players in clusters since you’ll be swinging back around for the rest of the draft. What I mean by this is that you’ll have two picks in very quick succession after a long wait where you have to just watch talent come off the board (i.e. #24/25 picks, #23/26 picks, #22/27 picks). As I mentioned, you should be targeting 2 WRs between the 22-27 picks; there should be enough talent still sitting there for you to be able to accomplish this. The top-6 WRs will definitely be gone (Dez, Demaryius, Antonio Brown, Megatron, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones), but all of the players I will be highlighting fall somewhere in that #7-13 WR rank; essentially right around a top-10 WR, which is what you’re looking to acquire in a 12 team league.

I’ll start with the two players that I’ll call the “best case scenario” for you at this point in the draft, which would be A.J. Green and Alshon Jeffery (and by best case scenario, I’m simply taking previous stats and trying to project their averages for the 2015 season, which we know is anything but an exact science). There are a lot of reasons to like both of these WRs. They both fit the mold of that prototypical big WR1, just like 5 out of the top 6 WRs that I already mentioned. Green is 6’4″, 210 lbs. and Jeffery is 6’3″, 215lbs, and both players are the clear cut #1 receiver on their respective teams. Another interesting component that they share is that they are both in the final year of their rookie contracts; this can potentially translate to a huge fantasy season since each WR will be hoping to put up big numbers and get paid in 2016. However, you do need to consider that because of their dominance, and the lack of another talented WR (Kevin White aside, simply because of having zero NFL experience) they will be getting double-teamed by most defenses, which could be a cause for some concern. Either player has the potential to be the best in the league and both have shown big play ability throughout their careers, and because of that they should be every-week starters as a WR1.

I have only been able to land one of those “top 2” WRs at my 2/3 round cluster in most mocks, so it would be a tough task to expect that you could definitely grab both. Moving on to the other three “lower” end WR1s that you could potentially get in these few spots, we see some guys that are the complete opposite of Green and Jeffery. Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders and T.Y. Hilton are quick speedy WRs whose average height and weight is just 5’10” 185lbs. Again, we’ve seen flashes from all 3 of these guys that make them very attractive to fantasy owners, and they’re certainly on the cusp of top-10 WR status. Unlike Green and Jeffery, all of these WRs have another big weapon on their team that will take some of the focus off of them, which should help to create opportunities for long receptions and big scoring plays (Sanders is #2 to Demaryius Thomas in Denver, Cobb is #2 to Jordy Nelson in Green Bay and Hilton now has Andre Johnson as a teammate in Indianapolis). Similar to Alshon Jeffery and A.J. Green being in contract years, we saw the best production of Randall Cobb’s career last season, and he now has a new contract. Emmanuel Sanders broke out as a slot receiver in 2013 and signed a new deal in Denver at the start of 2014, which was a stat-producing season far and above all others he’s had as a pro. Another advantage in picking any of these 3 players is that they have the #1, #2 and #3 QBs in the league throwing them the football. I will take Rodgers, Luck and Peyton over the likes of Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler any day.

Taking a look at all 5 receivers’ stats over the past few years, you can see that there isn’t really much of a difference between A.J. Green at #7 and T.Y. Hilton at #13. Let me break down some key numbers, some of which impact PPR leagues as well:

A.J. Green – 195 catches between 2012-2013, he averages 81 yards/game over his career and 9 TDs per season.He has had 20 games with 100+ yards and in 2014 he had six or more catches 6  times. Taking all of these numbers into account he would average 12.5 fantasy points per week in 2015.

Alshon Jeffery – 174 catches over the last 2 years, averaging 79 yards/game and 8 TDs per season. He has 8 games with 100+ yards, and caught six or more passes in 7 games in 2014. He would average approximately 12.25 points per week.

Emmanuel Sanders – 168 catches since 2013, averaging 67 yards/game and 7 TDs in the last two seasons. He has 7 games with 100+ yards, all of which came in 2014 when he also had 10 games with 6+ catches. He averages 11.5 fantasy points per week.

Randall Cobb – 171 catches in 2012&2014 (excluding the 2013 season in which injuries held him to only 6 games). He averages 72 yards/game over that span, with 8 TDs per season and also has 10 games with 100+ yards. In 2014 he had six or more catches 7 times and should average 11.25 fantasy points in 2015.

T.Y. Hilton – 164 catches since 2013, averaging 71 yards/game in his career and 6 TDs per season. He has 16 games with 100+ yards and had 7 games with 6+ catches in 2014. He would average 10.5 points per week.

As you can see, the numbers are very close no matter which combination of WRs you end up with. A Green/Jeffery combo would be worth about 24-25 points per week, a Green/Sanders combo would be worth 23-24 points per week, a Sanders/Hilton combo would be worth about 21-22 points per week. You see where I’m going with this… I guess what I would emphasize is to not just take numbers into account but to also use your own logic about certain NFL teams’ offenses; who the QB is, what the other fantasy threats on that team might be, and frankly just your own intuition based on how you’ve seen the players play. Gather a group of players together at each of your swing clusters and you’ll be giving yourself multiple backup options to feel safe about drafting if someone on your board is gone.

Good Luck with your drafts, and stay tuned for a breakdown of some middle-late rounds as well. TTYL, The Jeggernaut-