The Jeggernaut: WEEK 2 Predictions

PATRIOTS GAME CHANGER: TE Scott Chandler. For the last 5 years we’ve seen Chandler kill the Pats every time they travel to Buffalo, and this is the first time he’s squaring off against his former team. Rex Ryan admittedly has not been able to stop Rob Gronkowski in any of his attempts as the Jets head coach, and even with a top-flight defense in Buffalo Gronk should cause matchup nightmares again. We saw Chandler score an easy 1-yard TD last week against the Steelers (the Patriots lined up with Gronk and Chandler both out wide to the left, and Chandler had a free release on a quick out when Gronk set a pick), and I expect that we can see a lot more of the same this week against the Bills. With Gronk drawing double-teams and safety help for most of the game, it should give Chandler plenty of opportunities to get open for some easy targets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score and haul in at least 4-5 catches. LeGarrette Blount is also coming back this week, and if the Patriots can use him and Dion Lewis to be successful in the run game again it should keep the Bills defense a little more modest with its pass rush/blitz schemes.

FANTASY FLOP OF THE WEEKEddie Lacy. I should just say that I think Lacy may finish 2015 as the highest scoring RB in fantasy, but I don’t think this is a good situation for him in week 2. He hasn’t fared well against Seattle (averaging just 3.5 yards per touch in 2 games in 2014.) and neither has his QB, Aaron Rodgers. Since 2012 Rodgers is winless and has thrown just 2 TDs in 3 games against the Seahawks. Granted, all of those games were in Seattle, but this is Rodgers’ game to win. He’s in front of his home crowd at Lambeau and needs to get the Seattle monkey off his back. He’s reunited with old friend James Jones, and together with Randall Cobb and Davante Adams the Packers air game should be pretty close to the Jordy Nelson version we expected to see this year. Lacy has proven to be a valuable asset in the passing game, however he has just 11 yards on 3 catches versus the Seahawks to go along with his 107 rushing yards on 33 carries with zero TDs. The Seahawks have allowed the 6th fewest points to RBs, and continue to have a tough physical defense, despite the absence of Kam Chancellor and a high scoring loss to the Rams in week 1.

FANTASY SLEEPER OF THE WEEKShane Vereen. The Giants are playing a Falcons team that just allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in week one. Sure, I’ll concede that a lot of those “points allowed” are thanks to 3 cheap TDs by DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, but its a defense that also gave up 126 yards on 12 total touches (5 carries for 50 yards and 7 catches for 76) to Darren Sproles. The New York backfield platoon actually has a very similar makeup to that of the Eagles, and Shane Vereen’s role in New York is almost a direct parallel to Sproles’ in Philadelphia. He had 60 yards on 7 touches last week against Dallas, and like Sproles he averaged over 10 yards per catch with 46 yards on 4 receptions. While Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are the straight ahead power backs, Vereen’s change-of-pace role could gash the Falcons D for the second week in a row. Don’t be shocked to see Vereen go for over 100 yards, and if you’re in a PPR league he can give you added value with the potential for 6 or more catches.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Tennessee (-2) @ Cleveland. I am far from anointing the Titans as contenders, but they stomped all over Tampa Bay last week. Marcus Mariota (13 of 16 for 209 yards) set a rookie record, throwing 4 TDs in the first half. Bishop Sankey looked like a legitimate NFL running back with 84 yards on 14 touches and 2 total TDs. The Bucs were embarassed 42-14 at home, and even though both teams will struggle this season, Tennessee looks like it has some promising young weapons. On the flipside, the Browns looked pretty pathetic despite having an early 7-0 lead. They allowed Chris Ivory to score twice on 20 carries for 91 yards, while Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson combined for just 42 yards on 19 carriesJosh McCown is concussed and Johnny Manziel still looks shaky, and ultimately the Jets were able to capitalize scoring points off of turnovers en route to a 31-10 victory. I think a field goal is a laughable spread in this one based off how the teams performed last week, and I have the Titans winning 27-13.

The Jeggernaut: WEEK 1 Predictions

PATRIOTS GAME CHANGER: My impact player for the Pats week 1 is RB James White. Bill Belichick’s backfield is always a crapshoot and I’m not saying White will punch his ticket for significant playing time all season, but I think this is his week. LeGarrette Blount has to sit out, which leaves touches up for grabs. Yes, Brandon Bolden is the most tenured Patriots back, but we barely saw him in the preseason and I think his ceiling has already been exposed. Dion Lewis is just too small for me to think Belichick will utilize him outside of passing downs, and Travaris Cadet was brought in to be a third-down option but he’s another guy who has very little experience carrying the football. White showed some good vision and shiftiness against the Giants in the preseason finale, and he looked good between the tackles. While he was brought in to be an eventual Vereen replacement, I see a player who can be a very good combination in both the running game as well as the passing game. There isn’t a huge sample size from White, but let’s face it he was running behind Montee Ball and Melvin Gordon during his time at Wisconsin. I’m predicting between 15-20 total touches for White against Pittsburgh.

FANTASY FLOP OF THE WEEK: AJ Green. I really like AJ as a bounce back player in 2015, however I don’t think it’s going to happen week 1. The Bengals are heading to Oakland to take on the Raiders, and yes, the Raiders are far from a force to be reckoned with. However, there are some glaring matchup concerns for me in this one. First is Andy Dalton, I just don’t trust him. I’m sure he will get a pretty good rapport going with Green again as the season progresses, but there are two other targets in Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. The Bengals also have a healthy Tyler Eifert returning to the lineup who can definitely steal some red zone looks from Green. More importantly, the running game is Cincinnati’s bread and butter. With a tandem as dangerous as Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard, I think the offense will be looking to establish its identity on the ground early and often this season, especially since it is the best recipe for success for this team. On the other side of the ball, Oakland was the worst defense in allowing fantasy points to running backs last season, but amazingly allowed the 7th-fewest points to wide receivers. With that kind of discrepancy in the matchup, I can’t see the Bengals running any kind of game plan other than handing the ball off 30-40 times.

FANTASY SLEEPER OF THE WEEK: Leonard Hankerson. Hank has been making a lot of noise in the Falcons camp this summer, and he has the size/speed combo to legitimize the talk about him being a lethal slot WR this year. Again, I cannot ignore the matchups here. The Eagles defense was ranked dead last in points allowed to WRs in 2014, and it was also ranked 30th against QBs. Matt Ryan is sure to put up some huge numbers at home against such a porous defense, and with Julio Jones and Roddy White drawing most of the attention Hankerson should have plenty of opportunities, so long as he can stay on the field. Additionally, the Falcons have yet to establish a starting running back which could be more of a reason utilize the passing game, as if Matt Ryan wasn’t already enough.

LOCK OF THE WEEKSeattle (-4) @ St. Louis. I am well aware that these are two of the top-5 defenses in the NFL, but I just don’t think the Rams have enough offense to keep up. Despite the teams splitting their games in 2014, Russell Wilson threw for 552 yards and 2 TDs, and ran for another 106 yards and a TD in 2 games (including a week 17 bout that brought abbreviated playing time for Seattle starters). Marshawn Lynch is healthy and ready to go, and the team has the big addition of Jimmy Graham, which can only mean good things for that offense. I think Seattle still has a sour taste in its mouth after a disappointing SuperBowl loss, and Pete Carroll & Co will certainly be sharp out of the gate. The Rams won in St. Louis last year because of some trickery on special teams- don’t count on that happening again. I see the Seahawks winning by at least 10 points, scoring TDs while the Rams are held to FGs.