“They are what we thought they were, and we let them get away with it!”…

With the 2015 season at its midway point, there are certain truths that have become apparent. The Patriots are still really really good. The Lions still suck. The baseball season is way too long, and Cam Newton might actually be Superman.

Okay, Cam probably isn’t a superhero but he’s a legit NFL quarterback and he’s becoming a great leader of his team. Instead of ripping his suit jacket off to fight crime he’s ripping down banners in Bank of America Stadium to beat the enemy. It’s no fluke that the 3 undefeated teams (New England, Cincinnati and Carolina) have been lead by great quarterback play. Of the 3 undefeated QBs, Cam has the least talented supporting cast around him. Tom Brady has Gronk, Edelman, Dion Lewis, I can go on and on. Andy Dalton has AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, 2 talented RBs. Cam has TE Greg Olsen and a whole bunch of nobodies. It’s undeniable he’s a front runner for MVP, and if he can take the Panthers deep into the playoffs that could seal the deal.

Andrew Luck isn’t 8-0, but he’s still probably the best, most promising young QB in the league; he’s great. His coaches, GM and owner aren’t. He’s been set up to fail with no offensive line, no running game (until Frank Gore came in this year) and a GM who’s more concerned with starting a smear campaign against the best franchise in the league than he is with the health of his own franchise QB. Good luck to you Mr. Luck, it’s a long road ahead with all the nitwits in charge in Indy.

The Oakland Raiders aren’t THAT bad. There’s some young talent out in the Bay Area, and unfortunately for 49ers fans I’m not talking about Colin Kepernick or Carlos Hyde…or Blaine Gabbert. Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray are the key players in the Raiders young offense, and the ageless wonder Charles Woodson is leading a competitive defense. Once Peyton Manning retires, it’s not that hard to believe that the Raiders could be back atop the throne in the AFC West. Los Angeles might have a contending playoff team in 2018.

The NFC East is a crapshoot, as always. None of the 4 teams in this division can figure out how to rise above mediocrity, and we might see a 7-9 division winner this year. The Giants seem to have the most complete team (and the most accomplished QB), and if the return of JPP and Victor Cruz can come to fruition it just may add the extra pieces to make a scary contender out of them yet.

The Cowboys still haven’t figured it out. Jerry Jones is blinded by his own ego; he verbalizes ringing endorsements for players that wouldn’t even be allowed in the workforce outside of the NFL. Greg Hardy keeps getting shoved down our throats every week and it makes me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Dez Bryant used to be a “problem child” and now that the Cowboys are 2-6 he’s having temper tantrums again. Jerry passed on signing the league leading rusher from a year ago, Dez got hurt, Romo got hurt, and the season has been spiraling out of control ever since. 1994 was a LONG time ago.

The beginning of the end is here for the Seahawks. The Legion of Boom is in shambles: getting in arguments on the field, blowing big 4th quarter leads and allowing TEs to shred them week after week. Pete Carroll’s endearing hoo-rah personality has lost its effectiveness. Seattle traded away its all-pro C Max Unger and former Defensive Coordinator Dan Smith is coaching in Atlanta now. Beast Mode isn’t so much, and the Seahakws can’t control the tempo of games like they used to. They almost lost (and should have) to the aforementioned Cowboys 2 weeks ago. Have fun missing the playoffs.

Speaking of Seattle, Jimmy Graham is just an average TE. Since Graham left New Orleans Ben Watson is 4th in catches and 5th in yards amongst TEs, both ahead of Graham. Gronk is Gronking all over the league, leading in both categories for TEs. He’s still the premier player at the position but it seems like other teams are finally trying to copy the blueprint, and with some success. Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce among others are examples of big, fast, strong playmaking TEs that are emerging around the NFL. Even great defenses (Arizona, Seattle) are having trouble covering TEs and the position is changing the game.

Chris Johnson has more than twice as many yards as Eddie Lacy. Blake Bortles has more TD passes than Matt Ryan. Ben Roethlisberger has missed as many games as he has played, and the 40-year old Matt Hasselbeck has as many wins as the man he backs up.

It seems like no matter what happens, the conversation remains the same. Brady vs Peyton in the AFC, Rodgers and Brees in the NFC. Romo plays great but can’t get it done, the Bengals look great until December. I can’t guarantee there will be many top-flight matchups remaining this season (60% of the league has a .500 record OR WORSE), but it will surely be a dogfight from now until February 7th. I’m looking forward to Tom Brady embarrassing whatever team emerges out of the NFC, because he and Bill Belichick have been preparing for it for the last 9 months. They keep embodying excellence while the rest of the league is struggling to figure itself out.

You’re Welcome, Jegs-

PATRIOTS GAME CHANGER: TE Scott Chandler. For the last 5 years we’ve seen Chandler kill the Pats every time they travel to Buffalo, and this is the first time he’s squaring off against his former team. Rex Ryan admittedly has not been able to stop Rob Gronkowski in any of his attempts as the Jets head coach, and even with a top-flight defense in Buffalo Gronk should cause matchup nightmares again. We saw Chandler score an easy 1-yard TD last week against the Steelers (the Patriots lined up with Gronk and Chandler both out wide to the left, and Chandler had a free release on a quick out when Gronk set a pick), and I expect that we can see a lot more of the same this week against the Bills. With Gronk drawing double-teams and safety help for most of the game, it should give Chandler plenty of opportunities to get open for some easy targets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score and haul in at least 4-5 catches. LeGarrette Blount is also coming back this week, and if the Patriots can use him and Dion Lewis to be successful in the run game again it should keep the Bills defense a little more modest with its pass rush/blitz schemes.

FANTASY FLOP OF THE WEEK: Eddie Lacy. I should just say that I think Lacy may finish 2015 as the highest scoring RB in fantasy, but I don’t think this is a good situation for him in week 2. He hasn’t fared well against Seattle (averaging just 3.5 yards per touch in 2 games in 2014.) and neither has his QB, Aaron Rodgers. Since 2012 Rodgers is winless and has thrown just 2 TDs in 3 games against the Seahawks. Granted, all of those games were in Seattle, but this is Rodgers’ game to win. He’s in front of his home crowd at Lambeau and needs to get the Seattle monkey off his back. He’s reunited with old friend James Jones, and together with Randall Cobb and Davante Adams the Packers air game should be pretty close to the Jordy Nelson version we expected to see this year. Lacy has proven to be a valuable asset in the passing game, however he has just 11 yards on 3 catches versus the Seahawks to go along with his 107 rushing yards on 33 carries with zero TDs. The Seahawks have allowed the 6th fewest points to RBs, and continue to have a tough physical defense, despite the absence of Kam Chancellor and a high scoring loss to the Rams in week 1.

FANTASY SLEEPER OF THE WEEK: Shane Vereen. The Giants are playing a Falcons team that just allowed the most fantasy points to RBs in week one. Sure, I’ll concede that a lot of those “points allowed” are thanks to 3 cheap TDs by DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, but its a defense that also gave up 126 yards on 12 total touches (5 carries for 50 yards and 7 catches for 76) to Darren Sproles. The New York backfield platoon actually has a very similar makeup to that of the Eagles, and Shane Vereen’s role in New York is almost a direct parallel to Sproles’ in Philadelphia. He had 60 yards on 7 touches last week against Dallas, and like Sproles he averaged over 10 yards per catch with 46 yards on 4 receptions. While Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are the straight ahead power backs, Vereen’s change-of-pace role could gash the Falcons D for the second week in a row. Don’t be shocked to see Vereen go for over 100 yards, and if you’re in a PPR league he can give you added value with the potential for 6 or more catches.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Tennessee (-2) @ Cleveland. I am far from anointing the Titans as contenders, but they stomped all over Tampa Bay last week. Marcus Mariota (13 of 16 for 209 yards) set a rookie record, throwing 4 TDs in the first half. Bishop Sankey looked like a legitimate NFL running back with 84 yards on 14 touches and 2 total TDs. The Bucs were embarassed 42-14 at home, and even though both teams will struggle this season, Tennessee looks like it has some promising young weapons. On the flipside, the Browns looked pretty pathetic despite having an early 7-0 lead. They allowed Chris Ivory to score twice on 20 carries for 91 yards, while Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson combined for just 42 yards on 19 carries. Josh McCown is concussed and Johnny Manziel still looks shaky, and ultimately the Jets were able to capitalize scoring points off of turnovers en route to a 31-10 victory. I think a field goal is a laughable spread in this one based off how the teams performed last week, and I have the Titans winning 27-13.

PATRIOTS GAME CHANGER: My impact player for the Pats week 1 is RB James White. Bill Belichick’s backfield is always a crapshoot and I’m not saying White will punch his ticket for significant playing time all season, but I think this is his week. LeGarrette Blount has to sit out, which leaves touches up for grabs. Yes, Brandon Bolden is the most tenured Patriots back, but we barely saw him in the preseason and I think his ceiling has already been exposed. Dion Lewis is just too small for me to think Belichick will utilize him outside of passing downs, and Travaris Cadet was brought in to be a third-down option but he’s another guy who has very little experience carrying the football. White showed some good vision and shiftiness against the Giants in the preseason finale, and he looked good between the tackles. While he was brought in to be an eventual Vereen replacement, I see a player who can be a very good combination in both the running game as well as the passing game. There isn’t a huge sample size from White, but let’s face it he was running behind Montee Ball and Melvin Gordon during his time at Wisconsin. I’m predicting between 15-20 total touches for White against Pittsburgh.

FANTASY FLOP OF THE WEEK: AJ Green. I really like AJ as a bounce back player in 2015, however I don’t think it’s going to happen week 1. The Bengals are heading to Oakland to take on the Raiders, and yes, the Raiders are far from a force to be reckoned with. However, there are some glaring matchup concerns for me in this one. First is Andy Dalton, I just don’t trust him. I’m sure he will get a pretty good rapport going with Green again as the season progresses, but there are two other targets in Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. The Bengals also have a healthy Tyler Eifert returning to the lineup who can definitely steal some red zone looks from Green. More importantly, the running game is Cincinnati’s bread and butter. With a tandem as dangerous as Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard, I think the offense will be looking to establish its identity on the ground early and often this season, especially since it is the best recipe for success for this team. On the other side of the ball, Oakland was the worst defense in allowing fantasy points to running backs last season, but amazingly allowed the 7th-fewest points to wide receivers. With that kind of discrepancy in the matchup, I can’t see the Bengals running any kind of game plan other than handing the ball off 30-40 times.

FANTASY SLEEPER OF THE WEEK: Leonard Hankerson. Hank has been making a lot of noise in the Falcons camp this summer, and he has the size/speed combo to legitimize the talk about him being a lethal slot WR this year. Again, I cannot ignore the matchups here. The Eagles defense was ranked dead last in points allowed to WRs in 2014, and it was also ranked 30th against QBs. Matt Ryan is sure to put up some huge numbers at home against such a porous defense, and with Julio Jones and Roddy White drawing most of the attention Hankerson should have plenty of opportunities, so long as he can stay on the field. Additionally, the Falcons have yet to establish a starting running back which could be more of a reason utilize the passing game, as if Matt Ryan wasn’t already enough.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Seattle (-4) @ St. Louis. I am well aware that these are two of the top-5 defenses in the NFL, but I just don’t think the Rams have enough offense to keep up. Despite the teams splitting their games in 2014, Russell Wilson threw for 552 yards and 2 TDs, and ran for another 106 yards and a TD in 2 games (including a week 17 bout that brought abbreviated playing time for Seattle starters). Marshawn Lynch is healthy and ready to go, and the team has the big addition of Jimmy Graham, which can only mean good things for that offense. I think Seattle still has a sour taste in its mouth after a disappointing SuperBowl loss, and Pete Carroll & Co will certainly be sharp out of the gate. The Rams won in St. Louis last year because of some trickery on special teams- don’t count on that happening again. I see the Seahawks winning by at least 10 points, scoring TDs while the Rams are held to FGs.

A friend of mine (we’ll call him Frank) recently came to me with a dilemma. He’s somewhere in the middle of a 12-team draft and hits the same sort of wall in every mock draft that he does. In the third round he is looking at a group of players that are borderline low-end RB1s/ high-end RB2s, and now it simply comes down to him making the “right” choice out of a bunch of similar prospects. I feel like this is something that a lot of fantasy players can relate to, and is probably something that many of you have already encountered this summer. One concept that has opened my eyes a little bit is the idea of a player’s “range of possible outcomes”. While I cannot take credit for this theory, I’ve heard both Matthew Berry and Christopher Harris allude to it in a lot of the research I’ve done. It’s really a pretty simple, neat way to make a determination on which player is right for you, so let’s get to it.

Frank has been looking at drafting Justin Forsett, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, or Jonathan Stewart. All of these RBs are being ranked somewhere between the #10 and #20 spot for the position (depending on which site you get your rankings from and who’s draft board you’re looking at), and that’s exactly the type of player you need to fill your roster in the early rounds. All of them have some really nice upside, yet they all give you reason for concern as well.

Forsett finished with the highest fantasy point total last season, but it is also the first time in his 7-year career that he has even come close to that workload (his 235 carries in 2014 were twice as many as he had in the previous 3 years combined). He will be turning 30 in two months, is only 5’8″ and also has the bigger Lorenzo Taliaferro, and rookie Javorius Allen to contend with in the Ravens backfield. If he gets hurt at all or struggles to produce we could see the other 2 backs cut in to his carries and leave us with the 2011 version Justin Forsett that racked up a whopping 33 fantasy points. HOWEVER, if he stays healthy there is no reason to think the Ravens won’t use him the same way in 2015. The offensive line is still in tact and Baltimore is typically a run-first team. If your league has any additional PPR value placed on players, it gives Forsett a little boost over the others with his ability to catch 40-50+ balls out of the backfield.

Hyde is one of those players who isn’t technically a “rookie” on paper, but for all intents and purposes mind as well be (you could even place Latavius Murray in this category, another player who is hovering right around #20 in the RB ranks). We don’t have a huge sample size to look at in the case of Carlos Hyde, but with veteran Frank Gore leaving for Indianapolis, it leaves the door wide open. He’s a big, heavy runner at 235lbs. and did average 4.0 yards per carry when given an opportunity last year. His only real “competition” in the backfield is the aging Reggie Bush and the fading Kendall Hunter, and the 49ers will try to keep the ball out of Colin Kaepernick’s hands as much as possible so the upside looks very promising for Hyde. He has the potential to produce a season similar to that of Jeremy Hill last year, or even as impressive as the one Alfred Morris gave us in 2012. The glaring concern, however, is that he has to face Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis a total of 6 times, and all 3 defenses are extremely stingy against the run. Unless Bush has a sudden resurgence and the San Fran backfield turns into a tandem like we saw from the Lions in 2013, I still like Hyde’s chances and I would take a shot at him in the first 3 rounds.

JSTEW is probably the guy in this group I trust the most, IF he remains healthy. Again, we’re talking about a 230lb back who’s powerful and yet agile enough to grab 30-40+ catches out of the backfield. Assuming good health (taking 2012 and 2013 out of the equation, he has only missed 5 games over 5 seasons), Stewart has been very consistent in Carolina and on the low end is a sure bet for 750 yards and at least 4TDs. Let’s not forget that he was also in a timeshare with DeAngelo Williams all of those years, and this is the first season in a long time that he appears to be the clear-cut workhorse back for the Panthers. Sure, there’s always the hype about the human-wrecking-ball that is Mike Tolbert poaching some TDs, and even his QB Cam Newton is a goal-line threat, but I like his upside a lot this season. Rookie Cameron Artis-Payne hasn’t proven anything yet and is still buried on the depth chart, and Carolina doesn’t exactly face a bunch of devastating defenses in the perennially up-for-grabs NFC South. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see 1,000+ yards and a shot at double-digit TDs from JSTEW in 2015, but even if he falls short of that I can certainly live with his aforementioned floor.

Miller is the best combination of both youth and experience out of this bunch. He’s only 24 and this will be his third season as the starter in Miami, where we’ve seen consistent production out of him. While there are several other talented RBs behind him (Damien Williams, LaMichael James, Jay Ajayi), I see a very small range of outcomes due to the reliability of his workload. He may only carry the ball 12-15 times a game, but you can bank on him getting AT LEAST that much work each week and he’s a lock for 30+ catches as well. Very similar to Stewart he should be a safe bet for 750+ yards and a few scores, but his upside could be well over 1,000 yards and 6+ TDs. The growth of Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins’ aerial attack makes for a legitimate multi-dimensional offense that, if effective, can keep tough defenses (like the Bills and Jets) at bay. Lamar Miller may not be a sexy pick, but he’s most likely the safest RB in this group.

In summation, there are reasons to take any of these RBs as long as you’re willing to live with the risks involved and try to assemble your roster to support your decision. Hyde, Forsett, and even Murray are more of the “feast or famine” backs that could have a huge week and win a matchup or two for you, but who could also spend several weeks on end giving you 5 or 6 fantasy points. Stewart, Miller, and Morris are safer bets, whose workload won’t vary too dramatically and you can feel comfortable plugging them in as an RB2 or FLEX option each week for consistent 8-12 point production. I wasn’t asked to rank them, but if that helps at all here it goes:

1) Alfred Morris   2) Carlos Hyde   3) Lamar Miller   4) Jonathan Stewart   5) Justin Forsett   6) Latavius Murray

One of my fantasy leagues recently had its draft selection, and I have the second overall pick. I’ve been doing several mock drafts and evaluating what kind of talent will be there for me as the draft develops. Now of course, all leagues are a little different, but I am in a standard 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB and a FLEX position; this season we’ve implemented .5 PPR scoring to our rules. If you are also one of the top 3 picks in your league, here are some useful observations and tips on how to build your strategy –

With one of the first 3 picks, it’s safe to say that you are going to get a stud RB1. I have Le’Veon Bell and Adrian Peterson ranked #1/2, but after that I think it’s totally reasonable to take any of the next 4 RBs available (Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch,  or Matt Forte). Having secured one of the elite RBs in the league, I’ve been taking a WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I personally would not recommend trying to reach for a QB or TE there, and let’s face it Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Rob Gronkowski shouldn’t be available at #22 so there won’t really be a reason to grab those positions anyway. If your personal draft strategy differs from that than I guess I can’t force you into it, but take some time to look into other aspects like scarcity, value-based drafting (VBD), and VORP (value over replacement player) and you’ll see that it’s foolish to stray away from the WR position in the 2/3 round. If you do in fact have a PPR or .5 PPR league, that should be yet another reason to reinforce this strategy.

After the first round it helps to think of players in clusters since you’ll be swinging back around for the rest of the draft. What I mean by this is that you’ll have two picks in very quick succession after a long wait where you have to just watch talent come off the board (i.e. #24/25 picks, #23/26 picks, #22/27 picks). As I mentioned, you should be targeting 2 WRs between the 22-27 picks; there should be enough talent still sitting there for you to be able to accomplish this. The top-6 WRs will definitely be gone (Dez, Demaryius, Antonio Brown, Megatron, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones), but all of the players I will be highlighting fall somewhere in that #7-13 WR rank; essentially right around a top-10 WR, which is what you’re looking to acquire in a 12 team league.

I’ll start with the two players that I’ll call the “best case scenario” for you at this point in the draft, which would be A.J. Green and Alshon Jeffery (and by best case scenario, I’m simply taking previous stats and trying to project their averages for the 2015 season, which we know is anything but an exact science). There are a lot of reasons to like both of these WRs. They both fit the mold of that prototypical big WR1, just like 5 out of the top 6 WRs that I already mentioned. Green is 6’4″, 210 lbs. and Jeffery is 6’3″, 215lbs, and both players are the clear cut #1 receiver on their respective teams. Another interesting component that they share is that they are both in the final year of their rookie contracts; this can potentially translate to a huge fantasy season since each WR will be hoping to put up big numbers and get paid in 2016. However, you do need to consider that because of their dominance, and the lack of another talented WR (Kevin White aside, simply because of having zero NFL experience) they will be getting double-teamed by most defenses, which could be a cause for some concern. Either player has the potential to be the best in the league and both have shown big play ability throughout their careers, and because of that they should be every-week starters as a WR1.

I have only been able to land one of those “top 2” WRs at my 2/3 round cluster in most mocks, so it would be a tough task to expect that you could definitely grab both. Moving on to the other three “lower” end WR1s that you could potentially get in these few spots, we see some guys that are the complete opposite of Green and Jeffery. Randall Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders and T.Y. Hilton are quick speedy WRs whose average height and weight is just 5’10” 185lbs. Again, we’ve seen flashes from all 3 of these guys that make them very attractive to fantasy owners, and they’re certainly on the cusp of top-10 WR status. Unlike Green and Jeffery, all of these WRs have another big weapon on their team that will take some of the focus off of them, which should help to create opportunities for long receptions and big scoring plays (Sanders is #2 to Demaryius Thomas in Denver, Cobb is #2 to Jordy Nelson in Green Bay and Hilton now has Andre Johnson as a teammate in Indianapolis). Similar to Alshon Jeffery and A.J. Green being in contract years, we saw the best production of Randall Cobb’s career last season, and he now has a new contract. Emmanuel Sanders broke out as a slot receiver in 2013 and signed a new deal in Denver at the start of 2014, which was a stat-producing season far and above all others he’s had as a pro. Another advantage in picking any of these 3 players is that they have the #1, #2 and #3 QBs in the league throwing them the football. I will take Rodgers, Luck and Peyton over the likes of Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler any day.

Taking a look at all 5 receivers’ stats over the past few years, you can see that there isn’t really much of a difference between A.J. Green at #7 and T.Y. Hilton at #13. Let me break down some key numbers, some of which impact PPR leagues as well:

A.J. Green – 195 catches between 2012-2013, he averages 81 yards/game over his career and 9 TDs per season.He has had 20 games with 100+ yards and in 2014 he had six or more catches 6  times. Taking all of these numbers into account he would average 12.5 fantasy points per week in 2015.

Alshon Jeffery – 174 catches over the last 2 years, averaging 79 yards/game and 8 TDs per season. He has 8 games with 100+ yards, and caught six or more passes in 7 games in 2014. He would average approximately 12.25 points per week.

Emmanuel Sanders – 168 catches since 2013, averaging 67 yards/game and 7 TDs in the last two seasons. He has 7 games with 100+ yards, all of which came in 2014 when he also had 10 games with 6+ catches. He averages 11.5 fantasy points per week.

Randall Cobb – 171 catches in 2012&2014 (excluding the 2013 season in which injuries held him to only 6 games). He averages 72 yards/game over that span, with 8 TDs per season and also has 10 games with 100+ yards. In 2014 he had six or more catches 7 times and should average 11.25 fantasy points in 2015.

T.Y. Hilton – 164 catches since 2013, averaging 71 yards/game in his career and 6 TDs per season. He has 16 games with 100+ yards and had 7 games with 6+ catches in 2014. He would average 10.5 points per week.

As you can see, the numbers are very close no matter which combination of WRs you end up with. A Green/Jeffery combo would be worth about 24-25 points per week, a Green/Sanders combo would be worth 23-24 points per week, a Sanders/Hilton combo would be worth about 21-22 points per week. You see where I’m going with this… I guess what I would emphasize is to not just take numbers into account but to also use your own logic about certain NFL teams’ offenses; who the QB is, what the other fantasy threats on that team might be, and frankly just your own intuition based on how you’ve seen the players play. Gather a group of players together at each of your swing clusters and you’ll be giving yourself multiple backup options to feel safe about drafting if someone on your board is gone.

Good Luck with your drafts, and stay tuned for a breakdown of some middle-late rounds as well. TTYL, The Jeggernaut-

I’ve always had an infatuation with crazy sports names and the NFL has always had a lot of great ones. Anything with a “z”, “q”, “v”, or an apostrophe is an automatic contender. Here’s this year’s list.

1) Jaquiski Tartt – FS San Francisco 49ers

2) Quandre Diggs – CB Detroit Lions

3) Deiontrez Mount – OLB Tennessee Titans

4) Za’Darius Smith – OLB Baltimore Ravens

5) Senquez Golson – CB Pittsburgh Steelers

6) Owamagbe Odighizuwa – DE New York Giants

7) Hau’Oli Kikaha – OLB New Orleans Saints

8) Aaron Ripkowski – FB Green Bay Packers

9) Bud Dupree – OLB Pittsburgh Steelers

10) Javorius Allen – RB Baltimore Ravens

Honorable Mentions: Hroniss Grasu – C Chicago Bears; Ifo Ekpre-Olomu – CB Cleveland Browns; Tayo Fabuluje – G Chicago Bears; Obum Gwacham – DE Seattle Seahawks; Arie Kouandjio – G Washington Redskins

Congratulations to the Bears, Ravens and Steelers, which all have 2 players on this list. However, none of them are quite as great as D’Brickashaw Ferguson!

  

With the NFL season officially 6 weeks away football fans have a lot to get excited about. In light of all of the media issues surrounding the league, I could choose to write some insightful socio-political commentary but I’m not going to. The dog days of summer are taking their toll on me and I want to simply focus on what’s great about football… I need this season to start already, and so do you!

Here are my top 10 reasons to get excited about the NFL in 2015:

10) Rookie WR’s.     This year’s rookie class is touted as one of the best the NFL has ever seen, at least as far as wideouts are concerned. NFL rules and strategies have paved the way for some of the most prolific passing offenses of all time, and 2015 could prove to be one for the record books thanks to all of the incoming rookie talent. Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor… I could go on, but these are just a few of what should be immediate impact players this year.

9) Adrian Peterson.     AP is coming back this year and is ready to go. His legs are fresh, his health is as impeccable as it always has been and he’s out to prove his greatness again. Now that he and the Vikings have come to terms on a newly structured contract there’s nothing holding him back from focusing on one thing and one thing alone- punishing NFL defenses. He is one of the most dominant RBs in the last 30 years, and let’s not forget that he came just 9 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s rushing record in 2013.

8) Eagles @ Cowboys Wk 9.     DeMarco Murray’s 1,845 yards in 2014 was good for 17th all time (still a far cry from AP and ED) and the Cowboys’ choice to not sign him in 2015 was certainly one of the more criticized decisions of the off-season. The failure to re-sign Murray was probably second only to the Eagles’ trading LeSean McCoy, which conveniently enough made room for DeMarco in Philly. This will be his first return to Dallas as an opposing player, and a heated prime time divisional matchup under the lights in Jerry’s World ought to be one of the more intriguing games of the season.

7) JJ Watt.     I don’t think there’s any other defensive player who can single-handedly Impact a game as much as this dude. He’s tough, athletic and just loves to play football. He’s one of the bright spots in an otherwise abysmal AFC South, and I’ll tune in to watch “JJ Swatt” highlights anytime. He can rush the QB, stop the run, defend short passes and even run back 1…2…3 TDs, maybe more?

6) Odell Beckham version 2.0.     Okay so just to clarify, I’m not looking for another Odell Beckham. I’m not even banking on the first Odell Beckham to take over the reigns as the #1 elite WR in the league. I just want to witness another shocking, out of nowhere, crazy insane play from somebody this year. Do you remember seeing his one-handed TD catch against the Cowboys when you screamed “Holy $***!” and realized there was a load in your pants? There is bound to be another eye-popping play like that this year (or hopefully several with any luck). I don’t know when, or in what game, or by which player, but when it happens I hope I have a change of shorts on standby.

5) Jon Gruden.     THIS GUY makes me smile. The quintessential anti-Collinsworth is easily the best part of Monday Night Football. We’ve seen him interrogate incoming rookie QBs. We’ve seen him lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a SuperBowl victory in 2002. I can only hope that we see him on MNF for years to come. He calls it like he sees it and doesn’t hold back. Rather than sucking on the tiits of NFL franchises and entitled athletes, he has no problem ripping apart bad plays, bad decisions, or just downright bad football. Good. Honest. Football.

4) Seahawks @ Packers Wk 2.     These two teams have had some epic battles over the last few years, and this will be yet another installment in what is shaping up to be one of the best modern day rivalries in the game. Yes, this is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, however the bad blood dates further back than that. I still remember the atrocity that was the “Fail Mary” in 2012, and since that day Packers vs. Seahawks games are always exciting to watch. This time it will be at Lambeau Field rather than at the Link, so maybe that will translate to a win for the Pack.

3) Gronk.     Let’s face it, Rob Gronkowski is the man. He’s a good looking, 6’6″, cool, funny, goofy dude and he makes millions of dollars playing football. Admit it, if you could be Gronk you’d do it in a heartbeat. Whether he’s dancing on the sidelines, head butting Tom Brady or throwing someone out of the club, there’s no one that gets me pumped up on a weekly basis more than Gronk. You have to be one of the best to have a one word nickname, just saying.

2) Patriots @ Colts Wk 6.     This could be the first game back for Tom Brady, and there might be tons of haters out there that believe in smear campaigns, but this bloody slugfest should put everything to rest. It’s exactly what the league wants to see, and the schedule makers are probably nerding out like a high school band geek who just leveled up on World of Warcraft. It’s time for the big boys to come out to play. If the Colts win (cough cough…

  
hahaha) they’ll prove they’re a contender and if the Pats win they’ll shut everyone up once and for all. Either way, buckle up.

1) Fantasy Football!!!     My league (Hub Club) is picking our draft order this weekend and I can finally mock draft. I’m really pulling for a 9/10 pick, but we’ll see what happens. This is a stacked draft with a lot of high-end talent in the early rounds so it should be interesting. (Stay tuned for more draft strategy and recommendations) This is a tough and trying time for all of us fantasy addicts. Every Sunday we are deprived of time with our families and loved ones. But it’s okay because now we’ll have endless hours to check our rosters, troll the waiver wire for any last minute additions, and talk trash with all of our friends. That, and some good beers of course. Whoooooo!

There has been much speculation about both of these players, by analysts and fans alike. Why can’t Lucic perform at a high level without Krejci? Why can’t Krejci stay on the ice? Why can’t Bruins Management find and keep a top-line RW to play with these two? It’s fair to say that Krejci’s inconsistency and the struggles of Milan Lucic have not exactly been mutually exclusive. However, I believe that keeping them apart might be the answer we’re looking for in 2015.

Lucic admittedly struggled to find his identity last year. In an interview with Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe he cited a couple of reasons for his struggles, one being that he relied too much on David Krejci. It was obvious while Lucic was on the ice that he lost his way a little bit, however I don’t entirely blame him. Over the last few years the coaching staff has seemed to want to transform his playing style; they’ve tried to tame the ferocious enforcer in him too much and it almost got to the point where he forgot entirely what it’s like to be that player. They’ve wanted to see more leadership from Looch, and see a more balanced, level-headed skater. I believe it’s this urging from coaches along with his dependence upon Krejci that has lead him to be too cute and try to play a finesse game, rather than his more natural fast, heavy style.

The coaching staff didn’t exactly make it easy for Lucic to overcome the loss of Krejci. He must have played on about 15 different line combinations in November and December, having to skate alongside the likes of Craig Cunningham, Seth Griffith and even Mr. Locker Room himself, Chris Kelly. None of those players are necessarily going to give Lucic that spark of life or enthusiasm he was missing. Finally we saw him click with Ryan Spooner and David Pastrnak in the second half of the season, and the three of them put on quite a show! Fans screamed for a faster, younger game? Coaches urged Lucic to step up as a leader? It looks like all it took was a nice healthy serving of some spoon-fed pasta and Looch’s ailments were cured.

Now as for Krejci, I’ll admit that I personally have been pretty hard on him. There may not be a more clutch Playoff performer in the entire league, but his play during the regular season is up and down. In the two seasons that the Bruins made the Finals, Krejci scored 49 points in 47 playoff games! However, since then he has just 26 goals in 127 games and was unable to score in two playoff series in 2014. Much like the boost that Lucic was given from the kids, I think a change of scenery will do wonders for Krejci’s game.

He’s a player who is widely viewed as one of the best playmaking Centers in the game, and his $7.25mil/yr contract backs that up. Of course, he was given that kind of money to be starting for the Bruins and not shuffled back and forth between second-line duties and the injured reserve. For the past two off seasons this team has tried, and failed, to land an elite RW to start with Krejci and Lucic. I believe the solution to that problem might be right under our noses. Rather than spending time and money investing in some new question mark, why not use the resources we have and move Krejci over to RW? Sure he’s a great three-zone player and he’s solid from the face off dot, but with his kind of dynamic skill set and the $$ the Bruins have invested in him he should be able to play any forward position.

Reilly Smith seems to have plateued and it would be foolish to break up our new energetic “second” line. Krejci playing alongside Bergeron and Marchand could prove to be one of the most deadly lines in the league, and with the boatloads of talent those three possess they should be able to capitalize on dozens of scoring chances.

Don Sweeney and the Bruins management team have a lot to chew on this offseason and quite a few big decisions to make, especially in regards to contract negotiations (despite Peter Chiarelli being gone the team is still in a pretty tight spot against the cap). It would be prudent to focus the team’s money on the young talent it already has, and sign Dougie Hamilton, Torey Krug, Ryan Spooner and David Pastrnak to long term deals. Those players are part of the core of the team that will carry it to success in the future. Bigger holes to focus on filling through free agency would be a backup goaltender to play behind Tuukka Rask and at least one more D-man who could play a top-4 role.

Here are my proposed lines entering the 2015-2016 season:

1) Marchand   Bergeron   Krejci
2) Lucic   Spooner   Pastrnak
3) Kelly   Soderberg   Eriksson
4) Smith   Talbot   Connolly
D1) Chara   Hamilton
D2) Seidenberg     ?
D3) Krug   Miller

Whether I’m right or wrong, I hope the Bruins figure things out this offseason and give us all something to look forward to in October. I’ll be sure to keep up with whatever new developments come our way, but until then enjoy the rest of Stanley Cup Playoffs, and let’s all hope for more game 7’s!

Later- Jegs

All of us have been beaten over the head and bludgeoned to death with this friggen story. Now that the NFL’s investigation has reached a verdict and we know what Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots punishment is, I really don’t see a reason for Patriots Nation to stress out too much.

For one thing, Brady will appeal his 4 game suspension and it will probably become 2 games. Regardless of what type of power the league thinks it has, he is a player with no other offenses and has plenty of a case in his favor to reduce his penalty. In regards to the team being fined $1 million, (while I’m sure Robert Kraft isn’t happy with it) that isn’t exactly a fine that’s going to sting the organization too badly. Kraft can write a check to the league and move on, and it won’t put much of a dent in what the team will do long-term. Finally, there’s the 2 draft picks (1st round in 2016 and 4th round in 2017) that the team will have to forfeit; Belichick regularly trades out of picks and can easily find a way to draft 8, 9 or more players next year and beyond.

A large part of this whole investigation has been centered around the so called “court of public opinion”. Roger Gooddell and the league owners backed themselves into a corner with the egregious mismanagement of offenses to Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson and Greg Hardy, and now they seem to be overcompensating for their mistakes. Let’s face it, there’s a huge difference between a bit of clever (and possibly deceitful) gamesmanship and a serious criminal offense like aggravated assault, child abuse, or even murder. The New Orleans Saints bounty scandal from a few years back was something that was seriously harming players and putting them in very dangerous situations, this is simply about how much air is in a leather ball.

We can even look to other sports and find examples of relatively “harmless” plays that are on the borderline of proper sportsmanship. In baseball teams are constantly trying to steal others’ signs to gain an advantage. There’s even been a few times when the classic hidden ball trick has worked, and MLB hasn’t punished teams for attempting these. In the NBA we see a player inbound the ball off a defender’s back and scoop it up for an easy layup, or slide into the paint at the last second and take a flop to lead to a charging foul. While many of these things may be viewed as “unfair” by fans and analysts alike, they are within the parameters of the rules. I believe a large part of that “legality” can be credited to the human error created by the authority that referees/umpires have, which the leagues have ultimately empowered them with.

That being said, the NFL has gone to great lengths to uphold the integrity and consistency of the game, especially when it comes down to enforcing rules and making the appropriate calls in regards to penalties, TDs and hits to the head. The league certainly has the most in-depth replay system of any major sports, and there are constantly new controls being established to try to keep the human element out of the equation. I can’t help but ask the question- Why hasn’t the handling of the game balls been addressed prior to something like this happening? How the NFL could have continued to allow individual teams to be responsible for the footballs is beyond me, especially when it is such a simple task to put in the hands of the officiating crew.

Shame on you NFL for not being able to control one of the most elementary aspects to the game of football. Perhaps Gooddell needs to take a deeper look at himself and fix the problems he has allowed to linger, rather than point the finger and be so quick to place the blame on someone else. For the second straight offseason our attention is being diverted to distractions and arbitration over non-football related issues. The one common theme: Roger Gooddell’s unchecked ego.

Sincerely, Jegs

AH, you see what I did with that title there? Clever, right? You can thank me later. Look, I’ll be up front about it, I’ve never been a big Darren McFadden guy. I was always in the camp of, “He’s going to get hurt 3 weeks into the season, I’m not going to waste a pick on him.” He was a stud back in 2010 when he scored 10 total TDs and 220 fantasy points, but outside of that one great season he’s mostly been a WW flyer/ one-week FLEX pickup at best. I’m not going to sit here and tell you he will definitely stay healthy and play a full 16 games, or even start all of the games he plays in for that matter. Rather, I will simply lay out all of the numbers proving why he CAN be a valuable fantasy commodity, IF he stays healthy.

In 2014 we saw DeMarco Murray lead the NFL in rushing behind the best Offensive Line in the league (Dallas was ranked #1 overall, and 2nd in run-blocking). En route to acquiring the rushing title, he averaged 4.7 yards/carry (which is almost exactly his career average of 4.8 yards/carry) on an astronomical 392 rushing attempts. Just using the eye test, it is clear that Darren McFadden doesn’t have the same kind of dynamic, explosive skills that Murray has. However, even if we can assume that his workload will be closer to the RBs who play inside of the Earth’s atmosphere, McFadden’s prospective 2015 output should still be a pretty nice little chunk of the fantasy universe.

My 2015 projections for Run DMC are really quite simple. Taking into account his career averages, behind a very sub-par Oakland Raiders Offensive Line (Oakland’s O-line was ranked #16 in 2014, but just 24th in run blocking which was still an improvement from its #29 overall rank in 2013.), it is not unrealistic to expect the numbers I discussed in my overview. He has 30 total TDs in his career (83 games) and averages 12.5 carries per game for 4.1 yards/carry, as well as 2.5 catches per game for 8.4 yards/catch. Those averages over a 16 game season: 12.5 X 16 = 200 carries, 2.5 X 16 = 40 catches, 200 X 4.1 = 820 yards rushing, 40 X 8.4 = 336 yards receiving, and 0.36 TDs per game X 16 = 5.78 TDs in 2015.

The 150 fantasy points that would correlate to those numbers should definitely be good enough to place McFadden inside the top-25 running back ranks. However, if I’m wrong about Joseph Randle or Lance Dunbar, or if Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon don’t end up playing for the Cowboys, he has the potential for a 1,000 yard + season and possibly even a higher TD total if defenses underestimate him and load up on coverage of Dez Bryant in the red zone. Again, IF he stays healthy and emerges as the true lead back in Dallas, the upside on his output could certainly be approaching top-15 RB status. Either way, I think it’s a safe bet that he can be a reliable RB2 on your team for a good chunk of the season, and drafting him in the middle rounds (6-10) should be a reasonable investment in most standard league formats.

Peace, Love, and Football.     The Jeggernaut-